Spread: FC Midtjylland (-3.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lyngby BK (75%) · Lyngby BK at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Lyngby BK
4
Lyngby BK 75%
$1.7K
-$74.63
87.6¢ → 87¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLyngby BK at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Lyngby BKavg 87.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.37 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | FC Midtjyllandavg 15.7¢ | $414.25 | $348.47 | -$65.78 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
SN SnakeBall | Lyngby BKavg 90.1¢ | $126.14 | $121.8 | -$4.34 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
FO foooool | Lyngby BKavg 87.9¢ | $117.4 | $116.26 | -$1.14 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
Invested
$1,079.56
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3.37
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
Invested
$414.25
Value
$348.47
PnL
-$65.78
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$126.14
Value
$121.8
PnL
-$4.34
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$117.4
Value
$116.26
PnL
-$1.14
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.