Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Midtjylland, while the market favors Lyngby BK (74%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FC Midtjylland (25%) · FC Midtjylland at 26¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
FC Midtjylland
4
FC Midtjylland 25%
$1.2K
-$10.06
Research grade
AvoidFC Midtjylland at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Lyngby BK 74%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | FC Midtjyllandavg 26.6¢ | $683.53 | $666.69 | -$16.83 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 0xheavy888 | Lyngby BKavg 72.9¢ | $438.17 | $444.74 | +$6.57 | 56% 6354-5091 (11445) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lyngby BKavg 75¢ | $41.25 | $40.7 | +$0 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
FO foooool<$100 | Lyngby BKavg 73.5¢ | $27.92 | $28.12 | +$0.2 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
Invested
$683.53
Value
$666.69
PnL
-$16.83
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
0xheavy888Invested
$438.17
Value
$444.74
PnL
+$6.57
Record
56%
6354-5091 (11445)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$40.7
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
Invested
$27.92
Value
$28.12
PnL
+$0.2
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.