Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FC Midtjylland (25%) · FC Midtjylland at 61¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

FC Midtjylland61¢Lyngby BK39¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Midtjylland

Consensus Traders

FC Midtjylland 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$943.73

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 60.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Midtjylland at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Midtjylland

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Midtjylland61%

Lyngby BK40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Midtjylland2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,166

Combined PnL+$694.96

Lyngby BK6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,050

Combined PnL+$248.77

FC Midtjylland — 25%Lyngby BK — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Midtjyllandavg 60.5¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$709.34	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
RN1CTR	Lyngby BKavg 44¢	$858	$1.1K	+$253.5	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Lyngby BKavg 55¢	$433.21	$412.75	-$20.46	56% 6354-5091 (11445)
└ Lyngby BK leg	Lyngby BKavg 55¢	$245.21	$240.75	-$4.46
└ FC Midtjylland leg	FC Midtjyllandavg 47¢	$188	$172	-$16
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Lyngby BKavg 18¢	$160.5	$147.13	-$13.37	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 39.4¢	$68.26	$84.64	+$16.38	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
└ FC Midtjylland leg	FC Midtjyllandavg 39.4¢	$47.39	$63.73	+$16.34
└ Lyngby BK leg	Lyngby BKavg 46.9¢	$20.87	$20.92	+$0.04
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lyngby BKavg 54¢	$54	$57	+$3	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
LZ lzh1CTR<$100	Lyngby BKavg 54¢	$46.98	$49.59	+$2.61	43% 409-543 (952)
FO foooool<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 61¢	$48.76	$34.37	-$14.39	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Lyngby BKavg 37¢	$5.87	$9.05	+$3.17	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lyngby BKavg 49.8¢	$2.49	$2.35	-$0.14	58% 1463-1078 (2541)

GoalLineGhost

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$1,867.22

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$709.34

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

RN1CTR

Lyngby BK

Invested

$858

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$253.5

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Lyngby BK

Invested

$433.21

Value

$412.75

PnL

-$20.46

Record

56%

6354-5091 (11445)

Both legs:

Lyngby BK$245.2155¢-$4.46

FC Midtjylland$18847¢-$16

omnibus-076daaCTR

Lyngby BK

Invested

$160.5

Value

$147.13

PnL

-$13.37

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$68.26

Value

$84.64

PnL

+$16.38

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

Both legs:

FC Midtjylland$47.3939.4¢+$16.34

Lyngby BK$20.8746.9¢+$0.04

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lyngby BK

Invested

$54

Value

$57

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

lzh1CTR<$100

Lyngby BK

Invested

$46.98

Value

$49.59

PnL

+$2.61

Record

43%

409-543 (952)

foooool<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$48.76

Value

$34.37

PnL

-$14.39

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Lyngby BK

Invested

$5.87

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$3.17

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lyngby BK

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralFC Midtjylland at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

FC Midtjylland

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Midtjylland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.