Will Lyngby BK win on 2026-10-25?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

-$710.88

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 99.7¢

+5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares21,251

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares10,747

Combined PnL+$346.86

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 96.3¢	$15.2K	$13.9K	$-1.3K	93% 713-53 (766)
RN1	Noavg 87.4¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$189.78	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$51.9	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$815.1	$1.1K	+$249.88	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.2¢	$811.18	$831.37	+$20.2	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
oieshfn345	Noavg 87.3¢	$641.4	$636.74	-$4.67	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 87¢	$207.82	$210.28	+$2.46	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$88.18	$188.18	+$100	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
12 123987456	Noavg 90.2¢	$190	$185.46	-$4.54	46% 1530-1778 (3308)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$72.15	$72.3	+$0.15	50% 7759-7812 (15571)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 87¢	$25.57	$28.25	+$2.68	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$23	$20.4	-$2.6	55% 4844-4028 (8872)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$16.54	$16.12	-$0.42	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.4	-$0.1	58% 16134-11777 (27911)

Momo63

Invested

$15,215.1

Value

$13.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

93%

713-53 (766)

RN1

Invested

$1,909.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$189.78

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,322.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$51.9

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$815.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$249.88

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

SnakeBall

Invested

$811.18

Value

$831.37

PnL

+$20.2

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

oieshfn345

Invested

$641.4

Value

$636.74

PnL

-$4.67

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$207.82

Value

$210.28

PnL

+$2.46

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$88.18

Value

$188.18

PnL

+$100

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

123987456

Invested

$190

Value

$185.46

PnL

-$4.54

Record

46%

1530-1778 (3308)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$72.15

Value

$72.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

7759-7812 (15571)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$25.57

Value

$28.25

PnL

+$2.68

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$2.6

Record

55%

4844-4028 (8872)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.54

Value

$16.12

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

16134-11777 (27911)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.