Will Odense BK win on 2026-10-26?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 87¢ · $358 held · ends Oct 26

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$357.77

Combined PnL

$4.11

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 86.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$135.52

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$0.79

Yes5 traders

Total Value$222.26

Total Shares1,499

Combined PnL+$4.9

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 86¢	$135.02	$134.23	-$0.79	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$77.41	$79.72	+$2.31	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$71	$73.54	+$2.54	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$61.53	$61.53	+$0	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$6.73	$6.73	+$0	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 86¢	$1.29	$1.28	-$0.01	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.69	$0.74	+$0.05	50% 10665-10792 (21457)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$135.02

Value

$134.23

PnL

-$0.79

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.41

Value

$79.72

PnL

+$2.31

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71

Value

$73.54

PnL

+$2.54

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.53

Value

$61.53

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.73

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.