Will FC København win on 2026-10-26?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$2.42

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,249

Combined PnL-$0.36

No6 traders

Total Value$380.38

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL+$2.77

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Yesavg 67¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	50% 203-199 (402)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 33¢	$174.85	$174.85	+$0	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 32.8¢	$69.47	$69.96	+$0.49	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$51.7	$51.43	-$0.27	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
MA manoamano<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$49.28	$48.92	-$0.36	51% 412-395 (807)
us391CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$39.04	$39.65	+$0.61	51% 1575-1524 (3099)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$37.44	$38.61	+$1.17	51% 5789-5578 (11367)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$47.72	$5.88	+$0.78	58% 37023-26943 (63966)

Kch-Temp

Yes

Invested

$1,458.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

203-199 (402)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$174.85

Value

$174.85

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$69.47

Value

$69.96

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$51.7

Value

$51.43

PnL

-$0.27

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

manoamano<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.28

Value

$48.92

PnL

-$0.36

Record

51%

412-395 (807)

us391CTR<$100

Invested

$39.04

Value

$39.65

PnL

+$0.61

Record

51%

1575-1524 (3099)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Invested

$37.44

Value

$38.61

PnL

+$1.17

Record

51%

5789-5578 (11367)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$47.72

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.