FC København vs. Odense BK: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares11,172

Combined PnL+$307.03

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,980

Combined PnL+$722.98

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 57.7¢	$2.5K	$3.8K	+$1.4K	54% 52350-44240 (96590)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 83.2¢	$3.2K	$2.1K	$-1.1K	72% 2100-805 (2905)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.59	99% 11859-169 (12028)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$67.8	50% 9397-9321 (18718)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Overavg 22¢	$235.41	$610.96	+$375.55	53% 1070-949 (2019)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 7.3¢	$97.47	$444.9	+$347.43	60% 40137-26767 (66904)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$166.93	$190.3	+$23.37	50% 11010-11181 (22191)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$139.58	$132.1	-$7.48
└ Over leg	Overavg 22.1¢	$27.35	$58.2	+$30.85
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67¢	$15.18	$15.04	-$0.13	55% 2167-1782 (3949)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 56¢	$12.85	$13.43	+$0.57	58% 37814-27550 (65364)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,475.68

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

52350-44240 (96590)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$3,185.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

72%

2100-805 (2905)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$1,176.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.59

Record

99%

11859-169 (12028)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,070.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$67.8

Record

50%

9397-9321 (18718)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Over

Invested

$235.41

Value

$610.96

PnL

+$375.55

Record

53%

1070-949 (2019)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$97.47

Value

$444.9

PnL

+$347.43

Record

60%

40137-26767 (66904)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$166.93

Value

$190.3

PnL

+$23.37

Record

50%

11010-11181 (22191)

Both legs:

Under$139.5856¢-$7.48

Over$27.3522.1¢+$30.85

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

2167-1782 (3949)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$12.85

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$0.57

Record

58%

37814-27550 (65364)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.