Will FC København vs. Odense BK end in a draw?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 69¢ · $354 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$354.47
$24.78
80.5¢ → 68.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $206.03 | $204.03 | -$2 | 56% 6705-5375 (12080) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $78.19 | $102.37 | +$24.17 | 60% 40137-26767 (66904) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $18.97 | $19.11 | +$0.13 | 57% 1560-1154 (2714) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $11.76 | $11.91 | +$0.15 | 50% 9631-9553 (19184) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $5.97 | $7.73 | +$1.76 | 50% 9397-9321 (18718) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $3.19 | $3.71 | +$0.52 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.53 | +$0.02 | 54% 5767-4855 (10622) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.27 | $1.29 | +$0.02 | 54% 52350-44240 (96590) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | -$0 | 53% 15314-13525 (28839) |
0xheavy888Invested
$206.03
Value
$204.03
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
6705-5375 (12080)
Invested
$78.19
Value
$102.37
PnL
+$24.17
Record
60%
40137-26767 (66904)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$18.97
Value
$19.11
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
1560-1154 (2714)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$11.91
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
9631-9553 (19184)
Invested
$5.97
Value
$7.73
PnL
+$1.76
Record
50%
9397-9321 (18718)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.19
Value
$3.71
PnL
+$0.52
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
5767-4855 (10622)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.29
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
52350-44240 (96590)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
15314-13525 (28839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.