FC København vs. Odense BK: Both Teams to Score
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 80¢ · $495 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$494.72
-$142.37
56¢ → 80¢
+43% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $277.17 | $286.71 | +$9.54 | 50% 9631-9553 (19184) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $249.42 | $106.36 | -$143.06 | 60% 40137-26767 (66904) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $23.7 | $23.85 | +$0.15 | 50% 11010-11181 (22191) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 43¢ | $144.95 | $23 | +$2.49 | 58% 37814-27550 (65364) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $21.55 | $21.36 | -$0.19 | 50% 17590-17918 (35508) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.7¢ | $26.23 | $15.43 | -$10.81 | 50% 9397-9321 (18718) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $12.76 | $12.41 | -$0.35 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.85 | -$0.15 | 67% 22312-10898 (33210) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $0.75 | $0.76 | +$0.01 | 54% 52350-44240 (96590) |
Invested
$277.17
Value
$286.71
PnL
+$9.54
Record
50%
9631-9553 (19184)
Invested
$249.42
Value
$106.36
PnL
-$143.06
Record
60%
40137-26767 (66904)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$23.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
11010-11181 (22191)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$144.95
Value
$23
PnL
+$2.49
Record
58%
37814-27550 (65364)
Invested
$21.55
Value
$21.36
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
17590-17918 (35508)
Invested
$26.23
Value
$15.43
PnL
-$10.81
Record
50%
9397-9321 (18718)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.76
Value
$12.41
PnL
-$0.35
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.85
PnL
-$0.15
Record
67%
22312-10898 (33210)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.76
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
52350-44240 (96590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.