Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (85%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AC Horsens vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 4.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 16¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$1.1K
$-1.6K
77.4¢ → 15.5¢
-80% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 81¢ | $486 | $306.51 | +$2.22 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 80.3¢ | $1.3K | $243.1 | $-1.0K | 52% 16298-14844 (31142) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 81¢ | $162 | $162 | +$0 | 56% 6364-5100 (11464) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 44.3¢ | $135.34 | $157.42 | +$22.08 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
 RN1 | Overavg 80.5¢ | $647.43 | $112.56 | -$534.87 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $69.72 | $68.04 | -$0.42 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 37.8¢ | $71.12 | $43.43 | -$27.69 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $1.04 | $2.79 | +$1.75 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$486
Value
$306.51
PnL
+$2.22
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
Invested
$1,259.3
Value
$243.1
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
52%
16298-14844 (31142)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$162
Value
$162
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6364-5100 (11464)
Invested
$135.34
Value
$157.42
PnL
+$22.08
Record
68%
31181-14989 (46170)
RN1Invested
$647.43
Value
$112.56
PnL
-$534.87
Record
55%
43593-35871 (79464)
Invested
$69.72
Value
$68.04
PnL
-$0.42
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
Invested
$71.12
Value
$43.43
PnL
-$27.69
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$2.79
PnL
+$1.75
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.