AC Horsens vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 3.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$3.3K
-$509.6
64.3¢ → 50.5¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 64.5¢ | $2.3K | $1.8K | -$498.3 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 64.2¢ | $963 | $952.5 | -$10.5 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 63¢ | $294.51 | $296.85 | +$2.34 | 47% 1978-2210 (4188) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 64¢ | $128 | $127 | -$1 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 64.7¢ | $124.04 | $121.75 | -$2.28 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $15.37 | $15.52 | +$0.15 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $2.51 | $2.51 | -$0 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$2,308.19
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$498.3
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
VeryLucky888Invested
$963
Value
$952.5
PnL
-$10.5
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$294.51
Value
$296.85
PnL
+$2.34
Record
47%
1978-2210 (4188)
0xheavy888Invested
$128
Value
$127
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
Invested
$124.04
Value
$121.75
PnL
-$2.28
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$15.37
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.51
Value
$2.51
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.