AC Horsens vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 76¢ · $438 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
1 arb excluded
$438.35
$22.91
60.9¢ → 75.5¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $119.58 | $118.08 | -$2.25 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $66 | $64.5 | -$2.25 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57¢ | $53.58 | $53.58 | +$0 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 57.9¢ | $90.54 | $113.91 | +$23.37 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $88 | $86 | -$2 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 42.2¢ | $83.18 | $84.77 | +$1.6 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $24.64 | $24.48 | -$0.16 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $5.6 | $5.6 | -$0 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $3.03 | $3.09 | +$0.06 | 50% 2984-3011 (5995) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $2.38 | $2.42 | +$0.04 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$119.58
Value
$118.08
PnL
-$2.25
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.54
Value
$113.91
PnL
+$23.37
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$88
Value
$86
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$83.18
Value
$84.77
PnL
+$1.6
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$24.48
PnL
-$0.16
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
2984-3011 (5995)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.38
Value
$2.42
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.