Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$2.0K
-$39.54
82.1¢ → 96.3¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 84¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$318.8 | 50% 8820-8762 (17582) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $272.18 | $608.83 | +$336.65 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
FO foooool | Noavg 78.8¢ | $300.86 | $244.27 | -$56.59 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $70.2 | $69.12 | -$1.62 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $7.66 | $8.45 | +$0.79 | 57% 1459-1082 (2541) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.8 | -$0 | 55% 4850-4034 (8884) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.05 | $1.08 | +$0.03 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
Invested
$1,338.96
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$318.8
Record
50%
8820-8762 (17582)
Invested
$272.18
Value
$608.83
PnL
+$336.65
Record
68%
31181-14989 (46170)
Invested
$300.86
Value
$244.27
PnL
-$56.59
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
Invested
$70.2
Value
$69.12
PnL
-$1.62
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$7.66
Value
$8.45
PnL
+$0.79
Record
57%
1459-1082 (2541)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
4850-4034 (8884)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.