Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 13 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AC Horsens win on 2026-10-25?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 14¢ · $68K held · ended Oct 25

Yes86¢No14¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$67.6K

Combined PnL

$-8.1K

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 14.5¢

-76% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.9K

Total Shares80,197

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No13 traders

Total Value$38.3K

Total Shares59,778

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crisp1973	Yesavg 38.7¢	$31.0K	$28.8K	$-2.2K	53% 70-62 (132)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 61¢	$17.6K	$18.4K	$-5.6K	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 61.5¢	$5.2K	$5.4K	+$210.55	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 62.6¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$112.18	50% 192-189 (381)
RN1CTR	Noavg 61¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$154.2	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 61.4¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	-$903.63	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 61.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$65.95	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 61¢	$724.48	$760	+$35.52	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 61.5¢	$492	$512	+$20	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 42¢	$363.4	$420.4	+$57	57% 1459-1082 (2541)
└ No leg	Noavg 42¢	$213.78	$325.83	+$112.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57¢	$149.62	$94.57	-$55.06
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 62.1¢	$250.75	$258.55	+$7.8	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
SL slimjoeCTR	Noavg 61¢	$157.38	$165.12	+$1.29	52% 5359-4977 (10336)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 54.7¢	$95.75	$63	-$32.75	55% 4850-4034 (8884)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$51.32	$53.85	+$2.52	52% 5511-5119 (10630)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$24.99	$38.08	+$13.09	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$11.74	$7.83	-$3.91	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1.95	$3.2	+$1.25	58% 16152-11790 (27942)

crisp1973

Yes

Invested

$30,965.21

Value

$28.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

53%

70-62 (132)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$17,552.24

Value

$18.4K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$5,154.23

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$210.55

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$4,923.52

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$112.18

Record

50%

192-189 (381)

RN1CTR

Invested

$3,135.4

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$154.2

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,653.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$903.63

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,659

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$65.95

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$724.48

Value

$760

PnL

+$35.52

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$492

Value

$512

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$363.4

Value

$420.4

PnL

+$57

Record

57%

1459-1082 (2541)

Both legs:

No$213.7842¢+$112.06

Yes$149.6257¢-$55.06

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$250.75

Value

$258.55

PnL

+$7.8

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

slimjoeCTR

Invested

$157.38

Value

$165.12

PnL

+$1.29

Record

52%

5359-4977 (10336)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.75

Value

$63

PnL

-$32.75

Record

55%

4850-4034 (8884)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$51.32

Value

$53.85

PnL

+$2.52

Record

52%

5511-5119 (10630)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

$38.08

PnL

+$13.09

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.74

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$3.91

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

16152-11790 (27942)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.