Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AC Horsens vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 12¢ · $240 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$239.9
-$10.15
25.4¢ → 11.5¢
-55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $78 | $78 | +$0 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $65.52 | $65.52 | -$15.12 | 57% 1459-1082 (2541) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $36.8 | $41.6 | +$4.8 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $25.11 | $24.18 | -$0.93 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $18 | $19.5 | +$1.5 | 46% 1532-1780 (3312) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 76.7¢ | $11.5 | $11.1 | -$0.4 | 55% 4850-4034 (8884) |
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$78
Value
$78
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$65.52
Value
$65.52
PnL
-$15.12
Record
57%
1459-1082 (2541)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$41.6
PnL
+$4.8
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
Invested
$25.11
Value
$24.18
PnL
-$0.93
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
Invested
$18
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
46%
1532-1780 (3312)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.4
Record
55%
4850-4034 (8884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.