Will Viborg FF win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 67¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$7.4K
-$60.53
65¢ → 66.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$25 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$42.04 | 59% 13959-9681 (23640) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $715.71 | $718.14 | +$2.43 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 65¢ | $207.86 | $207.92 | +$1.66 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 65¢ | $130 | $130 | +$1 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $70.2 | $70.2 | +$0 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.7¢ | $36.44 | $37.87 | +$1.42 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
RN1Invested
$3,250
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$25
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$2,943.2
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$42.04
Record
59%
13959-9681 (23640)
VeryLucky888Invested
$715.71
Value
$718.14
PnL
+$2.43
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$207.86
Value
$207.92
PnL
+$1.66
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
0xheavy888Invested
$130
Value
$130
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
Invested
$70.2
Value
$70.2
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Invested
$36.44
Value
$37.87
PnL
+$1.42
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.