Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Aarhus GF leading at halftime?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 34¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$15.61

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$980.6

Total Shares2,884

Combined PnL-$19.4

No3 traders

Total Value$489.06

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$3.79

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$1.0K	$980.6	-$19.4	33% 68-135 (203)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 65.5¢	$393	$396	+$3	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$90.95	$91.74	+$0.79	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.32	$1.32	+$0	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980.6

PnL

-$19.4

Record

33%

68-135 (203)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$393

Value

$396

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$90.95

Value

$91.74

PnL

+$0.79

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.