Will Aarhus GF vs. Viborg FF end in a draw?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.5K
$86.38
74¢ → 78.5¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 74.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$85.37 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $67.62 | $73.18 | +$0.46 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.94 | $4.27 | +$0.32 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.95 | +$0 | 55% 4880-4051 (8931) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $2.7 | $2.93 | +$0.22 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$1,288.44
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$85.37
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$67.62
Value
$73.18
PnL
+$0.46
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.94
Value
$4.27
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4880-4051 (8931)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.22
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.