Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 70¢ · $506 held · ended Oct 25

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$506.46

Combined PnL

$14.71

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 69.5¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$502.17

Total Shares793

Combined PnL+$14.4

No1 trader

Total Value$4.29

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.31

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 68¢	$150.46	$151.57	+$1.11	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
FO foooool	Yesavg 64.2¢	$153.6	$146.03	-$7.57	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 40¢	$83	$123.95	-$2.05	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$44.8	$68.32	+$23.52	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$9.85	$9.24	-$0.61	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$3.98	$4.29	+$0.31	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0	55% 4880-4051 (8931)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$150.46

Value

$151.57

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$153.6

Value

$146.03

PnL

-$7.57

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$83

Value

$123.95

PnL

-$2.05

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.8

Value

$68.32

PnL

+$23.52

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.61

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.