Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 8.1¢ · $286 held · ended Oct 25

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$285.69

Combined PnL

$2.04

Smart Money Entry

30.5¢ → 8.1¢

-73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$197.45

Total Shares640

Combined PnL+$2.11

No2 traders

Total Value$88.24

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 38.6¢	$114.13	$112.48	-$1.65	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$85.26	$85.19	-$0.07	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$200	$76	-$2	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.33	$7.41	+$6.08	46% 1530-1774 (3304)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.56	$1.32	-$0.24	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.32	$0.24	-$0.08	55% 43492-35800 (79292)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.13

Value

$112.48

PnL

-$1.65

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$85.26

Value

$85.19

PnL

-$0.07

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$76

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$6.08

Record

46%

1530-1774 (3304)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.5%

8.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$951.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

1051.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.