Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $46 held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$45.91

Combined PnL

$6.27

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$27.54

Total Shares28

Combined PnL+$2.8

No2 traders

Total Value$18.37

Total Shares162

Combined PnL+$3.47

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$15.03	$16.99	+$1.96	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$11.48	$16.83	+$5.36	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$5.26	$5.57	+$0.31	76% 3207-1028 (4235)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.98	+$0.52	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$3.42	$1.54	-$1.88	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.03

Value

$16.99

PnL

+$1.96

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$11.48

Value

$16.83

PnL

+$5.36

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.57

PnL

+$0.31

Record

76%

3207-1028 (4235)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.52

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$1.88

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.