Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chicken Coop Esports, while the market favors Voca (100%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Chicken Coop Esports - Map 2 Winner
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chicken Coop Esports (25%) · Chicken Coop Esports at 0.1¢ · $172 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Chicken Coop Esports
4
Chicken Coop Esports 25%
$171.85
-$69.01
Research grade
AvoidChicken Coop Esports at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Voca 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TE testBruno2 | Vocaavg 97.6¢ | $320.56 | $125.94 | +$3 | 57% 752-569 (1321) |
VP Vps1<$100 | Vocaavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 94% 182-12 (194) |
 fidelis1CTR | Chicken Coop Esportsavg 66.2¢ | $85.45 | $14.7 | -$70.75 | 59% 160-112 (272) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Vocaavg 79¢ | $12.5 | $11.22 | -$1.27 | 61% 2675-1696 (4371) |
Invested
$320.56
Value
$125.94
PnL
+$3
Record
57%
752-569 (1321)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
94%
182-12 (194)
fidelis1CTRInvested
$85.45
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$70.75
Record
59%
160-112 (272)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$11.22
PnL
-$1.27
Record
61%
2675-1696 (4371)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.