Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chicken Coop Esports, while the market favors Voca (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - CCT North America Cup #1 Playoffs
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chicken Coop Esports (50%) · Chicken Coop Esports at 0.1¢ · $252 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Chicken Coop Esports
4
Chicken Coop Esports 50%
$251.9
$11.71
25.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidChicken Coop Esports at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Voca 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dicekingCTR | Chicken Coop Esportsavg 25.5¢ | $216.1 | $229.2 | +$13.11 | 59% 256-176 (432) |
VP Vps1<$100 | Vocaavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $14.99 | +$0.01 | 94% 182-12 (194) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Vocaavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $5 | +$0.4 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
 fidelis1CTR<$100 | Chicken Coop Esportsavg 45¢ | $4.51 | $2.71 | -$1.8 | 59% 160-112 (272) |
dicekingCTRInvested
$216.1
Value
$229.2
PnL
+$13.11
Record
59%
256-176 (432)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
94%
182-12 (194)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.4
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
fidelis1CTR<$100Invested
$4.51
Value
$2.71
PnL
-$1.8
Record
59%
160-112 (272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.