Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (37%) · Vitality at 100¢ · $48K held · ends Oct 25

Vitality>99¢TheMongolz<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 37%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 99.5¢

+42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

7 of 19 top traders (37%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality100%

TheMongolz1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality7 traders

Total Value$47.0K

Total Shares53,110

Combined PnL+$6.0K

TheMongolz12 traders

Total Value$532.43

Total Shares23,974

Combined PnL$-10.9K

Vitality — 37%TheMongolz — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

37% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpVitality 50% · 8

Aligned

ctrTheMongolz 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedTheMongolz 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000TheMongolz 65% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Vitalityavg 66.1¢	$29.9K	$35.3K	+$5.4K	55% 43396-35692 (79088)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	Vitalityavg 80.7¢	$5.2K	$5.6K	+$465.57	68% 212-99 (311)
Q7 q7662504	Vitalityavg 97¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$404.72	89% 315-40 (355)
Kangta8585	Vitalityavg 50¢	$700	$1.2K	+$532	55% 992-820 (1812)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Vitalityavg 70¢	$495	$450	-$127.5	69% 4242-1916 (6158)
CH chillhouse123	Vitalityavg 52.2¢	$363.49	$409.1	+$93.89	54% 2681-2286 (4967)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	TheMongolzavg 41.3¢	$2.3K	$350.78	-$638.03	58% 16108-11762 (27870)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 28.6¢	$3.0K	$333.32	$-2.7K	47% 1966-2195 (4161)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 28.6¢	$2.9K	$200	$-2.7K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 69¢	$104.54	$133.32	+$0.76
MU muneyenjayerrrCTR	TheMongolzavg 39.8¢	$2.7K	$137.41	$-2.6K	59% 242-167 (409)
HRTrading<$100	Vitalityavg 73¢	$28.47	$34.32	+$5.85	58% 1429-1045 (2474)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	TheMongolzavg 50¢	$5.2K	$25.83	$-2.6K	54% 2336-2011 (4347)
pup1CTR	TheMongolzavg 60¢	$197.52	$6.58	-$190.94	46% 1944-2289 (4233)
AS astapzippoCTR	TheMongolzavg 50¢	$79	$4	-$75	58% 1910-1391 (3301)
cruzNBACTR	TheMongolzavg 54.9¢	$6.3K	$3.17	$-3.5K	42% 327-451 (778)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$48.85	$3.15	-$45.7	70% 390-168 (558)
QI qidao001CTR	TheMongolzavg 52.3¢	$1.2K	$0.61	-$634.01	86% 1360-222 (1582)
AD adururuCTR	TheMongolzavg 51¢	$609.18	$0.3	-$310.38	54% 289-243 (532)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	TheMongolzavg 51¢	$597.9	$0.3	-$304.63	53% 216-195 (411)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	TheMongolzavg 13.8¢	$5.4K	$0.24	-$66	55% 860-708 (1568)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	TheMongolzavg 32¢	$105	$0.05	-$33.55	53% 2364-2105 (4469)

RN1

Vitality

Invested

$29,868.41

Value

$35.3K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

55%

43396-35692 (79088)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

Vitality

Invested

$5,177.91

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$465.57

Record

68%

212-99 (311)

q7662504

Vitality

Invested

$4,364.47

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$404.72

Record

89%

315-40 (355)

Kangta8585

Vitality

Invested

$700

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$532

Record

55%

992-820 (1812)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Vitality

Invested

$495

Value

$450

PnL

-$127.5

Record

69%

4242-1916 (6158)

chillhouse123

Vitality

Invested

$363.49

Value

$409.1

PnL

+$93.89

Record

54%

2681-2286 (4967)

BillBenter2026CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,263

Value

$350.78

PnL

-$638.03

Record

58%

16108-11762 (27870)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,964.54

Value

$333.32

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

47%

1966-2195 (4161)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$2,86028.6¢$-2.7K

Vitality$104.5469¢+$0.76

muneyenjayerrrCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,734.91

Value

$137.41

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

59%

242-167 (409)

HRTrading<$100

Vitality

Invested

$28.47

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$5.85

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$5,165.88

Value

$25.83

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

54%

2336-2011 (4347)

pup1CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$197.52

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$190.94

Record

46%

1944-2289 (4233)

astapzippoCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$79

Value

PnL

-$75

Record

58%

1910-1391 (3301)

cruzNBACTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$6,331.11

Value

$3.17

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

42%

327-451 (778)

manoamanoCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$48.85

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$45.7

Record

70%

390-168 (558)

qidao001CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,213.1

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$634.01

Record

86%

1360-222 (1582)

adururuCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$609.18

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$310.38

Record

54%

289-243 (532)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$597.9

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$304.63

Record

53%

216-195 (411)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$5,409.68

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$66

Record

55%

860-708 (1568)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$105

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$33.55

Record

53%

2364-2105 (4469)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

7 of 19 top traders (37%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

37% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpVitality 50% · 8

Aligned

ctrTheMongolz 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedTheMongolz 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000TheMongolz 65% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.