Games Total: O/U 2.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$2.0K
$375.9
42.3¢ → 59¢
+40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AC acorp | Overavg 42.3¢ | $2.7K | $1.6K | +$451.9 | 49% 578-600 (1178) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $513.79 | $437.76 | -$76.03 | 54% 50818-42773 (93591) |
 StudyPrediction<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $0.69 | $0.73 | +$0.03 | 53% 4151-3718 (7869) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.