Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vitality, while the market favors FUT Esports (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (83%) · Vitality at 46¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Vitality
6
Vitality 83%
$27.9K
-$72.64
46.8¢ → 45.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificanceCTR | Vitalityavg 46.8¢ | $20.8K | $20.7K | -$139.95 | 59% 71-50 (121) |
VI vibing123 | FUT Esportsavg 53¢ | $6.5K | $6.6K | +$61.44 | 57% 1401-1063 (2464) |
LU LucasCosta.CTR | Vitalityavg 46¢ | $294.4 | $297.6 | +$3.2 | 41% 298-432 (730) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Vitalityavg 45¢ | $213.95 | $216.33 | +$2.38 | 54% 5135-4443 (9578) |
 forsenxdCTR<$100 | Vitalityavg 45¢ | $77.73 | $78.59 | +$0.86 | 54% 1003-869 (1872) |
JI jiafanCTR<$100 | Vitalityavg 47¢ | $53.85 | $53.28 | -$0.57 | 60% 1402-928 (2330) |
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$20,827.97
Value
$20.7K
PnL
-$139.95
Record
59%
71-50 (121)
Invested
$6,513.05
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$61.44
Record
57%
1401-1063 (2464)
Invested
$294.4
Value
$297.6
PnL
+$3.2
Record
41%
298-432 (730)
Invested
$213.95
Value
$216.33
PnL
+$2.38
Record
54%
5135-4443 (9578)
forsenxdCTR<$100Invested
$77.73
Value
$78.59
PnL
+$0.86
Record
54%
1003-869 (1872)
Invested
$53.85
Value
$53.28
PnL
-$0.57
Record
60%
1402-928 (2330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.