Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (38%) · FUT Esports at 100¢ · $72K held · ends Oct 26

Vitality<1¢FUT Esports>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FUT Esports

Consensus Traders

FUT Esports 38%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 100¢

+83% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFUT Esports at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

6 of 16 top traders (38%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality0%

FUT Esports100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FUT Esports6 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares38,855

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Vitality10 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares26,922

Combined PnL$-5.7K

FUT Esports — 38%Vitality — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 51.1¢	$28.4K	$31.6K	+$3.2K	54% 51359-43322 (94681)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 30.9¢	$9.3K	$24.0K	+$14.7K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 51.1¢	$19.1K	$7.7K	$-11.4K
cruzNBA	FUT Esportsavg 40.1¢	$8.4K	$15.1K	+$6.8K	42% 359-504 (863)
c4acap	FUT Esportsavg 99.9¢	$8.8K	$8.8K	+$4.42	98% 2326-38 (2364)
Kangta8585CTR	Vitalityavg 72.5¢	$3.4K	$2.7K	+$172.44	55% 1022-829 (1851)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Vitalityavg 44.6¢	$5.5K	$2.5K	$-3.0K	53% 50-45 (95)
GT gt7238CTR	Vitalityavg 70.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$48.11	45% 545-660 (1205)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	Vitalityavg 54.1¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$697.55	50% 317-312 (629)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Vitalityavg 58¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$380.28	50% 405-398 (803)
13 1337zzz1337	FUT Esportsavg 45.8¢	$3.0K	$1.3K	$-1.7K	51% 192-183 (375)
FA facaigegeCTR	Vitalityavg 27¢	$583.98	$663.89	+$79.91	49% 367-385 (752)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 29¢	$795.95	$644.6	-$151.35	58% 17468-12818 (30286)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 29¢	$599.43	$413.4	-$186.03
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 68¢	$196.52	$231.2	+$34.68
RE redvinnyCTR	Vitalityavg 81¢	$7.3K	$537.73	$-4.1K	75% 1405-474 (1879)
SE seeeeeebARB<$100	Vitalityavg 85¢	$437.14	$400	-$37.14	49% 391-406 (797)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 80.3¢	$321.14	$318	-$3.14
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 85¢	$340	$82	-$34
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 85.2¢	$437.55	$397.04	-$40.51	67% 21812-10516 (32328)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 81¢	$321.14	$315.19	-$5.95
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 85.2¢	$340	$81.85	-$34.57
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	Vitalityavg 81.5¢	$402.65	$393.37	-$9.28	54% 951-798 (1749)
0xHunterOk	FUT Esportsavg 29¢	$426.3	$294	-$95.55	54% 234-201 (435)
l0wkirkenuinely	FUT Esportsavg 56¢	$559.99	$200	-$360	57% 188-144 (332)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Vitalityavg 52.6¢	$178.6	$188.84	+$10.24	49% 17257-17615 (34872)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 44¢	$84.83	$139.78	+$54.95
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 52.6¢	$93.77	$49.06	-$44.71
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 79.3¢	$320.87	$186.07	-$70.03	53% 3467-3122 (6589)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 79.3¢	$119.29	$120.3	+$1.02
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 30¢	$98.7	$65.77	-$71.05
poshposhCTR<$100	Vitalityavg 53.4¢	$40.73	$31.56	-$9.18	62% 8582-5253 (13835)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100	FUT Esportsavg 33¢	$38.28	$23.2	-$15.08	46% 831-994 (1825)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Vitalityavg 55¢	$9	$13.09	+$4.09	54% 5998-5186 (11184)

RN1ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$28,416.24

Value

$31.6K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

54%

51359-43322 (94681)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$9,309.3630.9¢+$14.7K

Vitality$19,106.8851.1¢$-11.4K

cruzNBA

FUT Esports

Invested

$8,374.42

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

42%

359-504 (863)

c4acap

FUT Esports

Invested

$8,821.29

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$4.42

Record

98%

2326-38 (2364)

Kangta8585CTR

Vitality

Invested

$3,448.31

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$172.44

Record

55%

1022-829 (1851)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$5,461.19

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

53%

50-45 (95)

gt7238CTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,261.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$48.11

Record

45%

545-660 (1205)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,458.34

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$697.55

Record

50%

317-312 (629)

delacsynzy1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$380.28

Record

50%

405-398 (803)

1337zzz1337

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

192-183 (375)

facaigegeCTR

Vitality

Invested

$583.98

Value

$663.89

PnL

+$79.91

Record

49%

367-385 (752)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$795.95

Value

$644.6

PnL

-$151.35

Record

58%

17468-12818 (30286)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$599.4329¢-$186.03

Vitality$196.5268¢+$34.68

redvinnyCTR

Vitality

Invested

$7,342.61

Value

$537.73

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

75%

1405-474 (1879)

seeeeeebARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$437.14

Value

$400

PnL

-$37.14

Record

49%

391-406 (797)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$321.1480.3¢-$3.14

Vitality$34085¢-$34

pauleta23ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$437.55

Value

$397.04

PnL

-$40.51

Record

67%

21812-10516 (32328)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$321.1481¢-$5.95

Vitality$34085.2¢-$34.57

TommyLeePeecaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$402.65

Value

$393.37

PnL

-$9.28

Record

54%

951-798 (1749)

0xHunterOk

FUT Esports

Invested

$426.3

Value

$294

PnL

-$95.55

Record

54%

234-201 (435)

l0wkirkenuinely

FUT Esports

Invested

$559.99

Value

$200

PnL

-$360

Record

57%

188-144 (332)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$178.6

Value

$188.84

PnL

+$10.24

Record

49%

17257-17615 (34872)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$84.8344¢+$54.95

Vitality$93.7752.6¢-$44.71

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$320.87

Value

$186.07

PnL

-$70.03

Record

53%

3467-3122 (6589)

Both legs:

Vitality$119.2979.3¢+$1.02

FUT Esports$98.730¢-$71.05

poshposhCTR<$100

Vitality

Invested

$40.73

Value

$31.56

PnL

-$9.18

Record

62%

8582-5253 (13835)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$38.28

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$15.08

Record

46%

831-994 (1825)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Vitality

Invested

Value

$13.09

PnL

+$4.09

Record

54%

5998-5186 (11184)

Research grade

NeutralFUT Esports at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

6 of 16 top traders (38%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FUT Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.