Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (60%) · Vitality at 75¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 26
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Neutral
Vitality
5
Vitality 60%
$13.8K
$54.52
73.6¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | Vitalityavg 74¢ | $7.4K | $7.4K | -$0 | 57% 271-201 (472) |
 one8tyfive | Vitalityavg 73¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | +$55.43 | 65% 2048-1104 (3152) |
 itwasawholethingCTR | FUT Esportsavg 26¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0 | 60% 44-29 (73) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Vitalityavg 73¢ | $730 | $740 | +$10 | 57% 4583-3398 (7981) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | FUT Esportsavg 26¢ | $567.35 | $556.44 | -$10.91 | 53% 105-93 (198) |
Invested
$7,399.99
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
271-201 (472)
one8tyfiveInvested
$4,046.45
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$55.43
Record
65%
2048-1104 (3152)
itwasawholethingCTRInvested
$1,039.99
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
60%
44-29 (73)
Invested
$730
Value
$740
PnL
+$10
Record
57%
4583-3398 (7981)
Invested
$567.35
Value
$556.44
PnL
-$10.91
Record
53%
105-93 (198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.