Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (71%) · Spirit at 67¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
7
Spirit 71%
$7.1K
-$43.01
67.5¢ → 67¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZY Zywoo123 | Spiritavg 67¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$0 | 51% 835-787 (1622) |
RA Rayaya | Spiritavg 67.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$56 | 59% 975-671 (1646) |
 JustADonkCTR | TYLOOavg 33¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$44.82 | 55% 816-662 (1478) |
 relativesignificance | Spiritavg 68¢ | $907.52 | $880.83 | -$26.69 | 57% 56-43 (99) |
LU LucasCosta.CTR | TYLOOavg 33¢ | $194.27 | $194.27 | +$0 | 41% 281-402 (683) |
JI jiafan | Spiritavg 69¢ | $178.61 | $173.52 | -$5.09 | 61% 1296-824 (2120) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Spiritavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $3.35 | -$0.05 | 36% 12767-22362 (35129) |
Invested
$2,330.12
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
835-787 (1622)
Invested
$2,036
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$56
Record
59%
975-671 (1646)
JustADonkCTRInvested
$1,479.12
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$44.82
Record
55%
816-662 (1478)
relativesignificanceInvested
$907.52
Value
$880.83
PnL
-$26.69
Record
57%
56-43 (99)
Invested
$194.27
Value
$194.27
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
281-402 (683)
Invested
$178.61
Value
$173.52
PnL
-$5.09
Record
61%
1296-824 (2120)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
12767-22362 (35129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.