Counter-Strike: Spirit vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (75%) · Spirit at 100¢ · $33K held · ends Oct 25

Spirit>99¢TYLOO<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 75%

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit100%

TYLOO0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit6 traders

Total Value$29.7K

Total Shares35,553

Combined PnL-$437.24

TYLOO2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares31,257

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Spirit — 75%TYLOO — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Spiritavg 82¢	$19.9K	$19.5K	-$360.65	53% 894-786 (1680)
RE redvinny	Spiritavg 87.6¢	$8.1K	$8.3K	+$171.87	75% 1309-437 (1746)
JustADonkCTR	TYLOOavg 20.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$87.75	55% 818-663 (1481)
RN1CTR	TYLOOavg 15.6¢	$4.9K	$1.6K	$-3.3K	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Spiritavg 92¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$225	51% 960-920 (1880)
SP sportteryqq	Spiritavg 79¢	$678	$660.84	-$17.16	39% 382-586 (968)
Q7 q7662504	Spiritavg 97¢	$120.48	$116.76	-$3.73	89% 315-40 (355)
0X 0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f<$100	Spiritavg 87¢	$89.63	$87.05	-$2.58	74% 212-73 (285)

JohnLKellyJr

Spirit

Invested

$19,855.3

Value

$19.5K

PnL

-$360.65

Record

53%

894-786 (1680)

redvinny

Spirit

Invested

$8,107.49

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$171.87

Record

75%

1309-437 (1746)

JustADonkCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$1,849.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$87.75

Record

55%

818-663 (1481)

RN1CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$4,917.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Spirit

Invested

$1,310

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$225

Record

51%

960-920 (1880)

sportteryqq

Spirit

Invested

$678

Value

$660.84

PnL

-$17.16

Record

39%

382-586 (968)

q7662504

Spirit

Invested

$120.48

Value

$116.76

PnL

-$3.73

Record

89%

315-40 (355)

0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f<$100

Spirit

Invested

$89.63

Value

$87.05

PnL

-$2.58

Record

74%

212-73 (285)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.