Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (50%) · Spirit at 56¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
6
Spirit 50%
$8.6K
$11.97
54.9¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | Spiritavg 55¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$41.48 | 57% 280-207 (487) |
RA RayayaCTR | MOUZavg 45¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$20 | 60% 1148-756 (1904) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | MOUZavg 43.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$20 | 54% 4497-3882 (8379) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | MOUZavg 43¢ | $430 | $430 | +$0 | 53% 5445-4784 (10229) |
 itwasawholething | Spiritavg 53¢ | $158.91 | $167.9 | +$10.49 | 59% 47-32 (79) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Spiritavg 56¢ | $2.84 | $2.84 | +$0 | 50% 7529-7565 (15094) |
Invested
$4,562.88
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$41.48
Record
57%
280-207 (487)
Invested
$1,800
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$20
Record
60%
1148-756 (1904)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$1,740
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$20
Record
54%
4497-3882 (8379)
Invested
$430
Value
$430
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5445-4784 (10229)
itwasawholethingInvested
$158.91
Value
$167.9
PnL
+$10.49
Record
59%
47-32 (79)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$2.84
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7529-7565 (15094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.