Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (83%) · FURIA at 64¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
FURIA
6
FURIA 83%
$24.8K
-$7.45
63.1¢ → 63.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFURIA at 64%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificanceCTR | Spiritavg 36.8¢ | $9.5K | $9.1K | -$333.49 | 59% 71-50 (121) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll | FURIAavg 63¢ | $6.6K | $6.8K | +$157.75 | 49% 989-1010 (1999) |
VI vibing123 | FURIAavg 63¢ | $6.3K | $6.4K | +$150 | 57% 1384-1052 (2436) |
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | FURIAavg 64¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$10 | 55% 1213-981 (2194) |
0X 0x29b52d98ac9ef9414b04164246c95BC63d7 | FURIAavg 64¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$8.41 | 54% 1551-1314 (2865) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | FURIAavg 65¢ | $15 | $14.88 | -$0.12 | 57% 5346-3984 (9330) |
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$9,478.13
Value
$9.1K
PnL
-$333.49
Record
59%
71-50 (121)
Invested
$6,625.45
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$157.75
Record
49%
989-1010 (1999)
Invested
$6,300
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$150
Record
57%
1384-1052 (2436)
Invested
$1,280
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10
Record
55%
1213-981 (2194)
Invested
$1,076.17
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$8.41
Record
54%
1551-1314 (2865)
Invested
$15
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
5346-3984 (9330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.