Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (67%) · Spirit at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
6
Spirit 67%
$3.5K
$30.15
64.1¢ → 64.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 65%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | Spiritavg 64¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$40.56 | 57% 271-201 (472) |
 relativesignificance | Spiritavg 65¢ | $403.09 | $393.79 | -$9.3 | 59% 70-49 (119) |
 bernardi22 | Spiritavg 64¢ | $300 | $300 | -$2.34 | 56% 1150-901 (2051) |
VI vibing123CTR | FURIAavg 35¢ | $106.95 | $108.48 | +$1.53 | 57% 1350-1031 (2381) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | FURIAavg 36¢ | $21.25 | $20.66 | -$0.59 | 65% 1573-846 (2419) |
 hasobidale<$100 | Spiritavg 63¢ | $12.61 | $12.81 | +$0.3 | 66% 195-99 (294) |
Invested
$2,595.76
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$40.56
Record
57%
271-201 (472)
relativesignificanceInvested
$403.09
Value
$393.79
PnL
-$9.3
Record
59%
70-49 (119)
bernardi22Invested
$300
Value
$300
PnL
-$2.34
Record
56%
1150-901 (2051)
Invested
$106.95
Value
$108.48
PnL
+$1.53
Record
57%
1350-1031 (2381)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$20.66
PnL
-$0.59
Record
65%
1573-846 (2419)
hasobidale<$100Invested
$12.61
Value
$12.81
PnL
+$0.3
Record
66%
195-99 (294)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.