Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Liquid (69%) · Liquid at 100¢ · $145K held · ends Oct 26

Liquid>99¢Legacy<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liquid

Consensus Traders

Liquid 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$145.4K

Combined PnL

$12.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 100¢

+99% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiquid at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid100%

Legacy0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Legacy8 traders

Total Value$59.6K

Total Shares103,808

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Liquid18 traders

Total Value$83.3K

Total Shares129,269

Combined PnL+$8.7K

Legacy — 31%Liquid — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Legacyavg 55.9¢	$52.4K	$55.8K	+$3.4K	54% 258-220 (478)
RN1	Liquidavg 45.7¢	$25.4K	$35.1K	+$9.6K	54% 51828-43764 (95592)
JohnLKellyJr	Liquidavg 54.6¢	$13.9K	$14.9K	+$995.06	53% 1073-952 (2025)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239	Liquidavg 44¢	$15.1K	$13.9K	$-1.2K	40% 268-394 (662)
noreasapa	Liquidavg 99.9¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$3.33	92% 3388-312 (3700)
LU luckycat888888	Liquidavg 45¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$399.96	48% 11-12 (23)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Liquidavg 30.9¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$653.39	53% 2837-2499 (5336)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 30.9¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$612.23
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 49¢	$800	$841.17	+$41.17
UN Unknownpoluy	Liquidavg 37.7¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$159.76	43% 77-101 (178)
Q7 q7662504	Liquidavg 95.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$31.54	89% 336-43 (379)
0xHunterOk	Liquidavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$109.38	54% 235-201 (436)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR	Legacyavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$67.02	57% 624-477 (1101)
forsenxd	Liquidavg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$95.58	53% 1013-881 (1894)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Legacyavg 22.1¢	$922.85	$981.92	+$59.07	52% 52-48 (100)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Legacyavg 52.7¢	$1.0K	$976.97	-$23.03	50% 410-402 (812)
DumplingBMF	Liquidavg 44¢	$1.2K	$810.01	-$57.4	68% 1775-819 (2594)
DE depresssin	Liquidavg 99.9¢	$616.38	$616.69	+$0.31	85% 1239-225 (1464)
BA BAPEHUK	Liquidavg 43¢	$430	$405	-$25	50% 384-388 (772)
cruzNBA	Liquidavg 44¢	$434.65	$400.07	-$34.57	42% 371-516 (887)
OM omnibus-076daa	Liquidavg 52.9¢	$383.69	$394.96	+$11.27	50% 17388-17711 (35099)
poshposh	Liquidavg 53.1¢	$292.2	$335.76	+$43.56	61% 8640-5569 (14209)
CH chillhouse123	Liquidavg 46.1¢	$533.6	$327.49	+$51.76	53% 3490-3147 (6637)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Legacyavg 51.9¢	$300	$297.6	-$2.4	51% 374-362 (736)
AS astapzippo	Liquidavg 58¢	$200	$200	+$0	56% 2054-1596 (3650)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Legacyavg 56¢	$150	$159.38	+$9.38	53% 1974-1776 (3750)
GR GroolCTR	Legacyavg 69¢	$138	$131	-$7	54% 1572-1355 (2927)

lllllllIlllCTR

Legacy

Invested

$52,405.4

Value

$55.8K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

54%

258-220 (478)

RN1

Liquid

Invested

$25,410.68

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

JohnLKellyJr

Liquid

Invested

$13,909.68

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$995.06

Record

53%

1073-952 (2025)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239

Liquid

Invested

$15,131.58

Value

$13.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

40%

268-394 (662)

noreasapa

Liquid

Invested

$6,662.72

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$3.33

Record

92%

3388-312 (3700)

luckycat888888

Liquid

Invested

$3,999.6

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$399.96

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$1,876.95

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$653.39

Record

53%

2837-2499 (5336)

Both legs:

Liquid$1,076.9530.9¢+$612.23

Legacy$80049¢+$41.17

Unknownpoluy

Liquid

Invested

$1,865.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$159.76

Record

43%

77-101 (178)

q7662504

Liquid

Invested

$1,520.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$31.54

Record

89%

336-43 (379)

0xHunterOk

Liquid

Invested

$1,375

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$109.38

Record

54%

235-201 (436)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR

Legacy

Invested

$1,072.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$67.02

Record

57%

624-477 (1101)

forsenxd

Liquid

Invested

$1,201.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$95.58

Record

53%

1013-881 (1894)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Legacy

Invested

$922.85

Value

$981.92

PnL

+$59.07

Record

52%

52-48 (100)

delacsynzy1CTR

Legacy

Invested

$1,000

Value

$976.97

PnL

-$23.03

Record

50%

410-402 (812)

DumplingBMF

Liquid

Invested

$1,150.9

Value

$810.01

PnL

-$57.4

Record

68%

1775-819 (2594)

depresssin

Liquid

Invested

$616.38

Value

$616.69

PnL

+$0.31

Record

85%

1239-225 (1464)

BAPEHUK

Liquid

Invested

$430

Value

$405

PnL

-$25

Record

50%

384-388 (772)

cruzNBA

Liquid

Invested

$434.65

Value

$400.07

PnL

-$34.57

Record

42%

371-516 (887)

omnibus-076daa

Liquid

Invested

$383.69

Value

$394.96

PnL

+$11.27

Record

50%

17388-17711 (35099)

poshposh

Liquid

Invested

$292.2

Value

$335.76

PnL

+$43.56

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

chillhouse123

Liquid

Invested

$533.6

Value

$327.49

PnL

+$51.76

Record

53%

3490-3147 (6637)

PIPIZINCTR

Legacy

Invested

$300

Value

$297.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

374-362 (736)

astapzippo

Liquid

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2054-1596 (3650)

RebornAthenaCTR

Legacy

Invested

$150

Value

$159.38

PnL

+$9.38

Record

53%

1974-1776 (3750)

GroolCTR

Legacy

Invested

$138

Value

$131

PnL

-$7

Record

54%

1572-1355 (2927)

Research grade

NeutralLiquid at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.