Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Legacy, while the market favors Liquid (64%). 9 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner

9 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (35%) · Legacy at 36¢ · $77K held · ends Oct 26

Liquid64¢Legacy36¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Legacy

Consensus Traders

Legacy 35%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$76.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.5K

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 36¢

-46% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

9 of 26 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Liquid 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid64%

Legacy36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Legacy9 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares59,256

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Liquid17 traders

Total Value$28.1K

Total Shares55,433

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Legacy — 35%Liquid — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Legacyavg 69.5¢	$27.8K	$22.0K	$-5.8K	53% 1048-934 (1982)
RN1ARB<$100	Legacyavg 46.8¢	$15.5K	$15.2K	-$271.24	54% 51398-43356 (94754)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 49.8¢	$6.4K	$8.2K	+$1.8K
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 46.8¢	$9.1K	$7.0K	$-2.1K
cruzNBA	Liquidavg 53.4¢	$13.5K	$11.6K	$-1.9K	42% 364-505 (869)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Liquidavg 48.3¢	$5.4K	$6.1K	+$684.23	54% 2432-2096 (4528)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR	Legacyavg 68¢	$6.1K	$5.2K	-$943.69	57% 619-473 (1092)
PROBABILITYTRADER	Liquidavg 55¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$614.23	42% 1046-1430 (2476)
dicekingCTR	Legacyavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$100	59% 278-194 (472)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Liquidavg 52.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$40	51% 1101-1057 (2158)
Blueberry1337CTR	Legacyavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$345	58% 1010-721 (1731)
DE delacsynzy1	Liquidavg 55¢	$1,000	$990.91	-$9.09	51% 409-398 (807)
FR frohp5CTR	Legacyavg 48.1¢	$1.0K	$966.45	-$33.55	65% 1868-1002 (2870)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Legacyavg 46¢	$900	$898.34	-$1.66	53% 2767-2446 (5213)
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 46¢	$600	$606.52	+$6.52
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 55¢	$300	$291.82	-$8.18
OX oxe78sh4w98	Liquidavg 49.9¢	$792.74	$865.59	+$72.85	52% 261-242 (503)
AD adururu	Liquidavg 49.7¢	$788.78	$865.59	+$76.81	54% 333-287 (620)
VeryLucky888	Liquidavg 29¢	$580	$700	+$120	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
teardropsaidmyname	Liquidavg 54¢	$680	$673.7	-$6.3	52% 404-378 (782)
PI PIPIZIN	Liquidavg 54¢	$600	$605.76	+$5.76	51% 373-361 (734)
latvian.demon	Liquidavg 52.2¢	$418	$428.64	+$10.64	53% 575-504 (1079)
SP sportteryqq	Liquidavg 32¢	$355	$349.45	-$5.55	40% 403-606 (1009)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Legacyavg 46¢	$177.72	$222.15	+$44.43	49% 17262-17622 (34884)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	Legacyavg 49.2¢	$226.52	$214.01	-$12.51	42% 488-664 (1152)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Liquidavg 29¢	$174.58	$204.14	+$29.55	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569	Liquidavg 31¢	$196.54	$193.37	-$3.17	46% 832-995 (1827)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Legacyavg 49¢	$367.61	$155.96	+$3.63	53% 3473-3123 (6596)
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 49¢	$83.77	$94.12	+$7.46
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 47.4¢	$65.19	$61.85	-$3.83
BE berlinskiesCTR	Legacyavg 49¢	$159.99	$151.83	-$8.16	57% 5460-4049 (9509)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Legacy

Invested

$27,785.5

Value

$22.0K

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

53%

1048-934 (1982)

RN1ARB<$100

Legacy

Invested

$15,457.11

Value

$15.2K

PnL

-$271.24

Record

54%

51398-43356 (94754)

Both legs:

Liquid$6,391.9449.8¢+$1.8K

Legacy$9,065.1646.8¢$-2.1K

cruzNBA

Liquid

Invested

$13,513.38

Value

$11.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

42%

364-505 (869)

THEHIGHLIFE

Liquid

Invested

$5,378.4

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$684.23

Record

54%

2432-2096 (4528)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR

Legacy

Invested

$6,118.51

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$943.69

Record

57%

619-473 (1092)

PROBABILITYTRADER

Liquid

Invested

$3,385.87

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$614.23

Record

42%

1046-1430 (2476)

dicekingCTR

Legacy

Invested

$2,199.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

59%

278-194 (472)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Liquid

Invested

$1,565

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

1101-1057 (2158)

Blueberry1337CTR

Legacy

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$345

Record

58%

1010-721 (1731)

delacsynzy1

Liquid

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990.91

PnL

-$9.09

Record

51%

409-398 (807)

frohp5CTR

Legacy

Invested

$1,000

Value

$966.45

PnL

-$33.55

Record

65%

1868-1002 (2870)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Legacy

Invested

$900

Value

$898.34

PnL

-$1.66

Record

53%

2767-2446 (5213)

Both legs:

Invested

$792.74

Value

$865.59

PnL

+$72.85

Record

52%

261-242 (503)

adururu

Liquid

Invested

$788.78

Value

$865.59

PnL

+$76.81

Record

54%

333-287 (620)

VeryLucky888

Liquid

Invested

$580

Value

$700

PnL

+$120

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

teardropsaidmyname

Liquid

Invested

$680

Value

$673.7

PnL

-$6.3

Record

52%

404-378 (782)

PIPIZIN

Liquid

Invested

$600

Value

$605.76

PnL

+$5.76

Record

51%

373-361 (734)

latvian.demon

Liquid

Invested

$418

Value

$428.64

PnL

+$10.64

Record

53%

575-504 (1079)

sportteryqq

Liquid

Invested

$355

Value

$349.45

PnL

-$5.55

Record

40%

403-606 (1009)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Legacy

Invested

$177.72

Value

$222.15

PnL

+$44.43

Record

49%

17262-17622 (34884)

MrConsistencyCTR

Legacy

Invested

$226.52

Value

$214.01

PnL

-$12.51

Record

42%

488-664 (1152)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Liquid

Invested

$174.58

Value

$204.14

PnL

+$29.55

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569

Liquid

Invested

$196.54

Value

$193.37

PnL

-$3.17

Record

46%

832-995 (1827)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Legacy

Invested

$367.61

Value

$155.96

PnL

+$3.63

Record

53%

3473-3123 (6596)

Both legs:

Legacy$83.7749¢+$7.46

Liquid$65.1947.4¢-$3.83

berlinskiesCTR

Legacy

Invested

$159.99

Value

$151.83

PnL

-$8.16

Record

57%

5460-4049 (9509)

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

9 of 26 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Liquid 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Legacy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.