Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Aurora Gaming, while the market favors Liquid (58%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (50%) · Aurora Gaming at 42¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Aurora Gaming
4
Aurora Gaming 50%
$12.1K
-$610.92
44.4¢ → 42¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Gaming at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Liquid 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificanceCTR | Aurora Gamingavg 44.4¢ | $11.3K | $10.7K | -$613.92 | 58% 84-61 (145) |
DE delacsynzy1 | Liquidavg 55¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 | 51% 424-409 (833) |
DA dancingmonkey1 | Liquidavg 55¢ | $329.99 | $329.99 | +$3 | 54% 1234-1068 (2302) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Aurora Gamingavg 42¢ | $17.38 | $17.38 | +$0 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$11,327.67
Value
$10.7K
PnL
-$613.92
Record
58%
84-61 (145)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
424-409 (833)
Invested
$329.99
Value
$329.99
PnL
+$3
Record
54%
1234-1068 (2302)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.38
Value
$17.38
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.