Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (83%) · Aurora Gaming at 74¢ · $33K held · ends Oct 27
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Neutral
Aurora Gaming
6
Aurora Gaming 83%
$32.7K
-$63.1
73.8¢ → 73.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Gaming at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KateBollinger | Aurora Gamingavg 74¢ | $18.5K | $18.4K | -$125 | 69% 1716-775 (2491) |
TR TrippleEX | Aurora Gamingavg 74¢ | $7.4K | $7.4K | +$50 | 57% 280-207 (487) |
WI Wiretransferxyz | Aurora Gamingavg 73¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | +$38.38 | 53% 738-645 (1383) |
 hasobidale | Aurora Gamingavg 74¢ | $703 | $698.25 | -$4.75 | 67% 202-101 (303) |
MA manoamano | Aurora Gamingavg 74.4¢ | $445.05 | $439.42 | -$5.63 | 51% 428-415 (843) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Liquidavg 29.9¢ | $109.66 | $93.56 | -$16.1 | 49% 18348-18778 (37126) |
KateBollingerInvested
$18,499.99
Value
$18.4K
PnL
-$125
Record
69%
1716-775 (2491)
Invested
$7,399.95
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$50
Record
57%
280-207 (487)
Invested
$5,575.43
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$38.38
Record
53%
738-645 (1383)
hasobidaleInvested
$703
Value
$698.25
PnL
-$4.75
Record
67%
202-101 (303)
Invested
$445.05
Value
$439.42
PnL
-$5.63
Record
51%
428-415 (843)
Invested
$109.66
Value
$93.56
PnL
-$16.1
Record
49%
18348-18778 (37126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.