Counter-Strike: Tropa do KinGui vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Tropa do KinGui (100%) · Tropa do KinGui at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
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Neutral
Tropa do KinGui
4
Tropa do KinGui 100%
$2.6K
$1.2K
54.8¢ → 100¢
+83% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTropa do KinGui at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 puntobigboss | Tropa do KinGuiavg 47¢ | $993.55 | $2.1K | +$1.1K | 68% 61-29 (90) |
TE testBruno2 | Tropa do KinGuiavg 83¢ | $652.6 | $206.26 | +$34.87 | 57% 750-564 (1314) |
 fidelis1 | Tropa do KinGuiavg 85¢ | $170 | $199.9 | +$29.9 | 58% 156-112 (268) |
VP Vps1<$100 | Tropa do KinGuiavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.95 | +$0.05 | 94% 179-12 (191) |
puntobigbossInvested
$993.55
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
68%
61-29 (90)
Invested
$652.6
Value
$206.26
PnL
+$34.87
Record
57%
750-564 (1314)
fidelis1Invested
$170
Value
$199.9
PnL
+$29.9
Record
58%
156-112 (268)
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
94%
179-12 (191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.