Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs ex-6666 - Map 2 Winner
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sökerorg (67%) · Sökerorg at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Sökerorg
6
Sökerorg 67%
$1.1K
$71.61
84.2¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSökerorg at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Sökerorg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VP Vps1 | Sökerorgavg 99.9¢ | $549.45 | $549.73 | +$0.28 | 95% 221-12 (233) |
TE testBruno2 | Sökerorgavg 75.2¢ | $229.14 | $304.32 | +$75.18 | 57% 773-578 (1351) |
 poshposh | Sökerorgavg 58.4¢ | $126.86 | $217.12 | +$90.26 | 61% 8640-5569 (14209) |
 1am1b<$100 | Sökerorgavg 70¢ | $14 | $19.99 | +$5.99 | 58% 163-120 (283) |
PA Parkan312CTR<$100 | ex-6666avg 23¢ | $0.23 | $2.16 | +$1.93 | 76% 216-69 (285) |
MA MaktManCTR | ex-6666avg 43.4¢ | $102.14 | $0.12 | -$102.02 | 54% 28-24 (52) |
Invested
$549.45
Value
$549.73
PnL
+$0.28
Record
95%
221-12 (233)
Invested
$229.14
Value
$304.32
PnL
+$75.18
Record
57%
773-578 (1351)
poshposhInvested
$126.86
Value
$217.12
PnL
+$90.26
Record
61%
8640-5569 (14209)
1am1b<$100Invested
$14
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$5.99
Record
58%
163-120 (283)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$1.93
Record
76%
216-69 (285)
Invested
$102.14
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$102.02
Record
54%
28-24 (52)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.