Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold X-CITY, while the market favors prodigy (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: prodigy vs X-CITY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold X-CITY (60%) · X-CITY at 0.1¢ · $772 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
X-CITY
5
X-CITY 60%
1 arb excluded
$772.02
-$200.8
32.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidX-CITY at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors prodigy 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on X-CITY. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100 | X-CITYavg 38.5¢ | $648.68 | $371.91 | -$481 | 52% 9069-8471 (17540) |
| └ X-CITY leg | X-CITYavg 38.5¢ | $547.32 | $204.97 | -$546.58 | |
| └ prodigy leg | prodigyavg 71¢ | $160.82 | $166.94 | +$65.58 | |
 poshposh | prodigyavg 70.7¢ | $255.31 | $247.02 | -$52.38 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR | X-CITYavg 24.8¢ | $140.38 | $81.5 | -$58.88 | 45% 861-1034 (1895) |
SE seeeeeeb<$100 | prodigyavg 78¢ | $30.01 | $42.75 | +$12.73 | 50% 580-589 (1169) |
FO fortunekingCTR | X-CITYavg 57¢ | $114 | $28.8 | -$85.2 | 59% 763-531 (1294) |
SW swiftFoxxCTR<$100 | X-CITYavg 26.3¢ | $17.1 | $0.03 | -$17.07 | 74% 48-17 (65) |
Invested
$648.68
Value
$371.91
PnL
-$481
Record
52%
9069-8471 (17540)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$255.31
Value
$247.02
PnL
-$52.38
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
Invested
$140.38
Value
$81.5
PnL
-$58.88
Record
45%
861-1034 (1895)
Invested
$30.01
Value
$42.75
PnL
+$12.73
Record
50%
580-589 (1169)
Invested
$114
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$85.2
Record
59%
763-531 (1294)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$17.07
Record
74%
48-17 (65)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.