Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Revenge, while the market favors Prestige (63%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Revenge (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Revenge (67%) · Revenge at 37¢ · $57 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Revenge
3
Revenge 67%
$57
-$87.57
88.3¢ → 37¢
-58% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRevenge at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Prestige 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TE testBruno2CTR | Revengeavg 92.1¢ | $255.3 | $36.34 | -$95.01 | 57% 742-550 (1292) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Revengeavg 76.7¢ | $4.4 | $11.84 | +$7.44 | 63% 2583-1549 (4132) |
US User7429<$100 | Prestigeavg 63¢ | $8.82 | $8.82 | +$0 | 57% 5937-4416 (10353) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.