Counter-Strike: paiN vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold paiN (43%) · paiN at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
paiN
7
paiN 43%
$4.8K
$41.46
53.1¢ → 54.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralpaiN at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | paiNavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$58.41 | 54% 593-503 (1096) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | BESTIAavg 48.3¢ | $917.66 | $902.51 | -$15.15 | 54% 100-86 (186) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | BESTIAavg 46¢ | $738.77 | $730.74 | -$8.03 | 53% 6459-5787 (12246) |
LL lllllllIlll | paiNavg 53¢ | $539.27 | $544.35 | +$5.09 | 55% 236-194 (430) |
MA manoamano | paiNavg 54¢ | $195.62 | $197.5 | +$1.88 | 70% 384-167 (551) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | BESTIAavg 46.3¢ | $121.61 | $122.11 | +$0.5 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
 HRTradingCTR | BESTIAavg 46¢ | $113.16 | $111.93 | -$1.23 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$2,108.29
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$58.41
Record
54%
593-503 (1096)
Invested
$917.66
Value
$902.51
PnL
-$15.15
Record
54%
100-86 (186)
Invested
$738.77
Value
$730.74
PnL
-$8.03
Record
53%
6459-5787 (12246)
Invested
$539.27
Value
$544.35
PnL
+$5.09
Record
55%
236-194 (430)
Invested
$195.62
Value
$197.5
PnL
+$1.88
Record
70%
384-167 (551)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$121.61
Value
$122.11
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$113.16
Value
$111.93
PnL
-$1.23
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.