Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nuclear TigeRES (27%) · Nuclear TigeRES at 61¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26

Nuclear TigeRES61¢UNiTY esports39¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nuclear TigeRES

Consensus Traders

Nuclear TigeRES 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$873.87

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 60.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNuclear TigeRES at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuclear TigeRES

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuclear TigeRES61%

UNiTY esports40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuclear TigeRES3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,825

Combined PnL-$828.59

UNiTY esports8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,979

Combined PnL-$45.28

Nuclear TigeRES — 27%UNiTY esports — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Nuclear TigeRES. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUNiTY esports 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUNiTY esports 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000UNiTY esports 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Nuclear TigeRESavg 60¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$25	53% 1110-969 (2079)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Nuclear TigeRESavg 64.2¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$857.25	54% 116-97 (213)
HU humbleboyCTR	UNiTY esportsavg 38.3¢	$498.56	$514.33	+$15.78	54% 483-412 (895)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 38.1¢	$358.75	$393.57	+$34.82	53% 13206-11687 (24893)
└ UNiTY esports leg	UNiTY esportsavg 38.1¢	$245.22	$248.07	+$2.85
└ Nuclear TigeRES leg	Nuclear TigeRESavg 48¢	$113.52	$145.5	+$31.97
VI vibing123CTR	UNiTY esportsavg 37¢	$272.36	$283.4	+$11.04	52% 1499-1385 (2884)
GT gt7238CTR	UNiTY esportsavg 36.5¢	$175.34	$235.19	-$76.94	45% 569-690 (1259)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 38¢	$87.4	$88.55	+$1.15	50% 12265-12387 (24652)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 40¢	$74.4	$73.47	-$0.93	46% 378-439 (817)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 45.8¢	$16.92	$21.62	+$4.7	54% 972-822 (1794)
poshposh<$100	Nuclear TigeRESavg 33¢	$14.2	$17.85	+$3.66	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.45	-$0.13	59% 1435-981 (2416)
HRTradingCTR<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 39¢	$1.17	$1.23	+$0.06	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

JohnLKellyJr

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$2,999.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

1110-969 (2079)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$2,426.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$857.25

Record

54%

116-97 (213)

humbleboyCTR

UNiTY esports

Invested

$498.56

Value

$514.33

PnL

+$15.78

Record

54%

483-412 (895)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$358.75

Value

$393.57

PnL

+$34.82

Record

53%

13206-11687 (24893)

Both legs:

UNiTY esports$245.2238.1¢+$2.85

Nuclear TigeRES$113.5248¢+$31.97

vibing123CTR

UNiTY esports

Invested

$272.36

Value

$283.4

PnL

+$11.04

Record

52%

1499-1385 (2884)

gt7238CTR

UNiTY esports

Invested

$175.34

Value

$235.19

PnL

-$76.94

Record

45%

569-690 (1259)

sentrioCTR<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$87.4

Value

$88.55

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

12265-12387 (24652)

ccllarCTR<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$74.4

Value

$73.47

PnL

-$0.93

Record

46%

378-439 (817)

TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$16.92

Value

$21.62

PnL

+$4.7

Record

54%

972-822 (1794)

poshposh<$100

Nuclear TigeRES

Invested

$14.2

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$3.66

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

jiafanCTR<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

1435-981 (2416)

HRTradingCTR<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralNuclear TigeRES at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Nuclear TigeRES

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Nuclear TigeRES. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUNiTY esports 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUNiTY esports 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000UNiTY esports 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuclear TigeRES wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.