Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold DENDELE CS, while the market favors Nemiga (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold DENDELE CS (33%) · DENDELE CS at 42¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
DENDELE CS
6
DENDELE CS 33%
$18.7K
$57.01
40.9¢ → 41.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDENDELE CS at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on DENDELE CS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | DENDELE CSavg 40.9¢ | $9.7K | $9.9K | +$151.09 | 53% 723-633 (1356) |
TR TrippleEX | Nemigaavg 59¢ | $5.9K | $5.8K | -$50 | 57% 278-207 (485) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Nemigaavg 59¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$14.3 | 55% 118-98 (216) |
 hasobidale | Nemigaavg 61¢ | $702.56 | $679.63 | -$28.68 | 67% 202-101 (303) |
MA manoamanoCTR | DENDELE CSavg 42¢ | $291.64 | $288.17 | -$3.47 | 51% 426-412 (838) |
 relativesignificance | Nemigaavg 58¢ | $274.73 | $277.1 | +$2.37 | 58% 84-61 (145) |
Invested
$9,742.09
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$151.09
Record
53%
723-633 (1356)
Invested
$5,900
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$50
Record
57%
278-207 (485)
Invested
$1,687.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$14.3
Record
55%
118-98 (216)
hasobidaleInvested
$702.56
Value
$679.63
PnL
-$28.68
Record
67%
202-101 (303)
Invested
$291.64
Value
$288.17
PnL
-$3.47
Record
51%
426-412 (838)
relativesignificanceInvested
$274.73
Value
$277.1
PnL
+$2.37
Record
58%
84-61 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.