Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 5.5¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.7K
$90.35
54.6¢ → 5.5¢
-90% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 60.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$57.9 | 54% 50820-42775 (93595) |
AC acorpCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $501.57 | $489.91 | -$11.66 | 49% 578-600 (1178) |
 forsenxd | Underavg 53¢ | $308.65 | $337.77 | +$29.12 | 54% 1003-869 (1872) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 55¢ | $275 | $290 | +$15 | 54% 5135-4443 (9578) |
0X 0x29b52d98ac9ef9414b04164246c95BC63d7CTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $21 | $21 | +$0 | 54% 1593-1352 (2945) |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,508.24
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$57.9
Record
54%
50820-42775 (93595)
Invested
$501.57
Value
$489.91
PnL
-$11.66
Record
49%
578-600 (1178)
forsenxdInvested
$308.65
Value
$337.77
PnL
+$29.12
Record
54%
1003-869 (1872)
Invested
$275
Value
$290
PnL
+$15
Record
54%
5135-4443 (9578)
Invested
$21
Value
$21
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1593-1352 (2945)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.