Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (67%) · Nemiga at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Nemiga
6
Nemiga 67%
$2.0K
$47.02
54.7¢ → 56.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNemiga at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Nemigaavg 54.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$40.68 | 54% 105-91 (196) |
LU LucasCosta.CTR | Aurora Gamingavg 45¢ | $296.99 | $296.99 | -$0 | 41% 295-416 (711) |
WI Wiretransferxyz | Nemigaavg 53¢ | $122.18 | $126.79 | +$4.61 | 54% 621-534 (1155) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Nemigaavg 54.5¢ | $97.84 | $98.75 | +$0.91 | 69% 402-182 (584) |
 relativesignificance<$100 | Nemigaavg 53¢ | $21.19 | $21.99 | +$0.8 | 58% 69-49 (118) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Aurora Gamingavg 42¢ | $0.72 | $0.75 | +$0.03 | 57% 4546-3373 (7919) |
Invested
$1,379.21
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$40.68
Record
54%
105-91 (196)
Invested
$296.99
Value
$296.99
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
295-416 (711)
Invested
$122.18
Value
$126.79
PnL
+$4.61
Record
54%
621-534 (1155)
Invested
$97.84
Value
$98.75
PnL
+$0.91
Record
69%
402-182 (584)
relativesignificance<$100Invested
$21.19
Value
$21.99
PnL
+$0.8
Record
58%
69-49 (118)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
4546-3373 (7919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.