Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga, while the market favors Aurora Gaming (69%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (75%) · Nemiga at 32¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Nemiga32¢Aurora Gaming68¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 75%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$2.65

Smart Money Entry

34.9¢ → 31.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 32%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora Gaming 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga32%

Aurora Gaming69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,726

Combined PnL+$1.04

Aurora Gaming2 traders

Total Value$901

Total Shares1,323

Combined PnL+$1.61

Nemiga — 75%Aurora Gaming — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Nemigaavg 32¢	$834.9	$847.95	+$13.05	56% 250-198 (448)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Nemigaavg 37¢	$598.83	$590.74	-$8.09	53% 8194-7246 (15440)
RN1	Aurora Gamingavg 68¢	$559.39	$563.5	+$4.11	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Aurora Gamingavg 68¢	$340	$337.5	-$2.5	51% 1087-1048 (2135)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Nemigaavg 37¢	$331.89	$327.41	-$4.49	46% 824-978 (1802)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Nemigaavg 36¢	$308.82	$313.11	+$4.29	47% 2220-2471 (4691)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Nemigaavg 37¢	$185	$182.5	-$2.5	54% 5135-4443 (9578)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Nemigaavg 37¢	$90.28	$89.06	-$1.22	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

lllllllIlllCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$834.9

Value

$847.95

PnL

+$13.05

Record

56%

250-198 (448)

justaluckydudeCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$598.83

Value

$590.74

PnL

-$8.09

Record

53%

8194-7246 (15440)

RN1

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$559.39

Value

$563.5

PnL

+$4.11

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$340

Value

$337.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1087-1048 (2135)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$331.89

Value

$327.41

PnL

-$4.49

Record

46%

824-978 (1802)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$308.82

Value

$313.11

PnL

+$4.29

Record

47%

2220-2471 (4691)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$185

Value

$182.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

5135-4443 (9578)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$90.28

Value

$89.06

PnL

-$1.22

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 32%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora Gaming 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.