Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga, while the market favors Aurora Gaming (51%). 12 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (55%) · Nemiga at 50¢ · $83K held · ends Oct 26

Nemiga50¢Aurora Gaming50¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$82.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 49.5¢

-9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

12 of 22 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora Gaming 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga50%

Aurora Gaming51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga12 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares42,016

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Aurora Gaming10 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares21,911

Combined PnL+$536.2

Nemiga — 55%Aurora Gaming — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 54¢	$40.3K	$40.2K	-$131.86	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 46.9¢	$20.1K	$21.7K	+$1.6K
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 54¢	$20.2K	$18.5K	$-1.7K
cruzNBACTR	Nemigaavg 58.7¢	$14.0K	$13.5K	-$475.04	41% 350-499 (849)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Nemigaavg 52.5¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$297.98	54% 2409-2079 (4488)
LL lllllllIlll	Aurora Gamingavg 57.3¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$135.76	56% 250-198 (448)
JohnLKellyJr	Aurora Gamingavg 40¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$636.32	53% 1031-910 (1941)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 53.6¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$274.04	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 53.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$148.01
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 56.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$126.03
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	Nemigaavg 61.1¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$644.16	51% 316-309 (625)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Nemigaavg 53.9¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$187.39	53% 2599-2307 (4906)
QI qidao001CTR	Nemigaavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$84.98	86% 1374-230 (1604)
FA facaigege	Aurora Gamingavg 57¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$45	49% 363-381 (744)
Kangta8585	Aurora Gamingavg 46.9¢	$1.0K	$992.23	-$7.77	55% 1017-829 (1846)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 53.1¢	$717.89	$789.28	+$71.39	54% 924-774 (1698)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 38.1¢	$304.12	$419.08	+$114.96
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 53.1¢	$413.77	$370.21	-$43.57
AD adururuCTR	Nemigaavg 53¢	$765.65	$715.09	-$50.56	54% 330-283 (613)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Nemigaavg 53¢	$765.65	$715.09	-$50.56	52% 259-238 (497)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Nemigaavg 31.5¢	$646.74	$626.56	-$20.17	53% 106-93 (199)
CH chillhouse123CTR	Nemigaavg 60.9¢	$852.02	$406.98	-$148.52	53% 3355-3006 (6361)
PA panpidaras1	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$400	$382.14	-$17.86	54% 165-139 (304)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Aurora Gamingavg 66¢	$330.09	$347.5	+$17.4	54% 5135-4443 (9578)
forsenxdCTR	Nemigaavg 36¢	$300.43	$312.95	+$12.52	54% 1003-869 (1872)
RU Ruler11CTR	Nemigaavg 48¢	$300	$296.88	-$3.13	51% 267-256 (523)
JI jiafan	Aurora Gamingavg 69¢	$234.27	$235.97	+$1.7	60% 1402-928 (2330)
poshposhARB<$100	Nemigaavg 52.8¢	$226.61	$195.84	-$30.77	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 52.8¢	$195.39	$153.59	-$41.81
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 43.2¢	$31.21	$42.25	+$11.04
GR Grool	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$112	$107	-$5	54% 1559-1348 (2907)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Nemigaavg 43¢	$26.79	$55.84	+$29.05	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 67¢	$46.9	$48.65	+$1.75	47% 2220-2471 (4691)

RN1ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$40,336.3

Value

$40.2K

PnL

-$131.86

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$20,137.0246.9¢+$1.6K

Nemiga$20,199.2854¢$-1.7K

cruzNBACTR

Nemiga

Invested

$14,007.71

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$475.04

Record

41%

350-499 (849)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Nemiga

Invested

$5,261.32

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$297.98

Record

54%

2409-2079 (4488)

lllllllIlll

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$4,411.92

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$135.76

Record

56%

250-198 (448)

JohnLKellyJr

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$3,371.9

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$636.32

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$3,091.39

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$274.04

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

Both legs:

Nemiga$1,931.6253.6¢-$148.01

Aurora Gaming$1,159.7756.7¢-$126.03

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$3,112.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$644.16

Record

51%

316-309 (625)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$187.39

Record

53%

2599-2307 (4906)

qidao001CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$1,294.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$84.98

Record

86%

1374-230 (1604)

facaigege

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,025.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$45

Record

49%

363-381 (744)

Kangta8585

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,000

Value

$992.23

PnL

-$7.77

Record

55%

1017-829 (1846)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$717.89

Value

$789.28

PnL

+$71.39

Record

54%

924-774 (1698)

Both legs:

Nemiga$304.1238.1¢+$114.96

Aurora Gaming$413.7753.1¢-$43.57

adururuCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$765.65

Value

$715.09

PnL

-$50.56

Record

54%

330-283 (613)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$765.65

Value

$715.09

PnL

-$50.56

Record

52%

259-238 (497)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$646.74

Value

$626.56

PnL

-$20.17

Record

53%

106-93 (199)

chillhouse123CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$852.02

Value

$406.98

PnL

-$148.52

Record

53%

3355-3006 (6361)

panpidaras1

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$400

Value

$382.14

PnL

-$17.86

Record

54%

165-139 (304)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$330.09

Value

$347.5

PnL

+$17.4

Record

54%

5135-4443 (9578)

forsenxdCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$300.43

Value

$312.95

PnL

+$12.52

Record

54%

1003-869 (1872)

Ruler11CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$300

Value

$296.88

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

jiafan

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$234.27

Value

$235.97

PnL

+$1.7

Record

60%

1402-928 (2330)

poshposhARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$226.61

Value

$195.84

PnL

-$30.77

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

Both legs:

Nemiga$195.3952.8¢-$41.81

Aurora Gaming$31.2143.2¢+$11.04

Grool

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$112

Value

$107

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

1559-1348 (2907)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$26.79

Value

$55.84

PnL

+$29.05

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$46.9

Value

$48.65

PnL

+$1.75

Record

47%

2220-2471 (4691)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

12 of 22 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora Gaming 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.