Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (71%) · Aurora Gaming at 73¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26

Nemiga28¢Aurora Gaming72¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Gaming

Consensus Traders

Aurora Gaming 71%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$18.71

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 72.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga28%

Aurora Gaming73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,529

Combined PnL-$19.48

Aurora Gaming5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,763

Combined PnL+$0.77

Nemiga — 29%Aurora Gaming — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Nemigaavg 28.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$21.54	54% 105-91 (196)
LU LucasCosta.	Aurora Gamingavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	41% 295-416 (711)
OM omnibus-076daa	Aurora Gamingavg 72.5¢	$220.19	$219.67	-$0.52	59% 14319-9905 (24224)
TR TrippleEX	Aurora Gamingavg 72¢	$185.87	$187.16	+$1.29	58% 271-200 (471)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Aurora Gamingavg 71¢	$151.69	$151.69	-$0	47% 2048-2287 (4335)
relativesignificanceCTR	Nemigaavg 28¢	$115.51	$117.58	+$2.06	58% 69-49 (118)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 71¢	$47.85	$47.85	+$0	65% 1561-836 (2397)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$1,479.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$21.54

Record

54%

105-91 (196)

LucasCosta.

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,384.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

295-416 (711)

omnibus-076daa

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$220.19

Value

$219.67

PnL

-$0.52

Record

59%

14319-9905 (24224)

TrippleEX

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$185.87

Value

$187.16

PnL

+$1.29

Record

58%

271-200 (471)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$151.69

Value

$151.69

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2048-2287 (4335)

relativesignificanceCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$115.51

Value

$117.58

PnL

+$2.06

Record

58%

69-49 (118)

darkumbreon88<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$47.85

Value

$47.85

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1561-836 (2397)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.