Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Team Nemesis (67%) · Team Nemesis at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
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Neutral
Team Nemesis
3
Team Nemesis 67%
$2.5K
$1.1K
55.3¢ → 98¢
+77% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Nemesis at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 diceking | Team Nemesisavg 55¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$1.1K | 59% 278-194 (472) |
 poshposh<$100 | Team Nemesisavg 96¢ | $20.07 | $20.33 | +$0.26 | 62% 8582-5253 (13835) |
 1am1bCTR<$100 | INOX Divisionavg 65¢ | $13 | $0.01 | -$12.99 | 58% 162-119 (281) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.